New data shows cabinet ministers among MPs at risk as campaign to pressure government over proposed benefit cuts to step up
Jessica Elgot Deputy political editor
Mon 14 Apr 2025 05.00 BST
Guardian
At least 80 Labour MPs are at risk of losing their majorities over proposed welfare cuts, according to data shared between Labour MPs who are warning the government that the changes “pose a real electoral risk”.
The analysis suggests almost 200 Labour MPs have a majority smaller than the number of recipients of personal independent payments in their constituencies – a significant number in northern England “red wall” seats.
Not all of those recipients will be affected by the changes – but more than 80 Labour MPs have a majority which is smaller than the number of disabled people who could see their benefits cuts.
MPs say an organising campaign to oppose welfare changes is stepping up coordinated action over the Easter recess, with a vote now expected in June.
Rebels believe they may be able to secure as many as 50 MPs to vote against the changes. One MP who opposes the changes said party whips had been suggesting some uneasy MPs may be quietly allowed to abstain on the vote.
A number of disaffected but loyalist MPs who do not want to rebel have been encouraging a campaign of personal letter-writing directly to Keir Starmer to urge changes to the cuts or pledges of more action to tackle poverty in advance of the vote, saying it was “pointless” to lobby the chancellor, Rachel Reeves.
More hardline MPs are planning a mass public intervention in the weeks after parliament returns, the Guardian has been told.